Modeling very large-fire occurrences over the continental United States from weather and climate forcing
The authors developed models of very large fire occurrence (> 5000ha) using solely atmospheric climate predictors and compared the modes to the observed spatial and temporal variability across ecoregions of the U.S. to identify the most important climate variables driving large fire occurrence and to understand how large fire occurrence may be change due to future climate changes.
The authors found that in flammability-limited ecoregions, specifically the Western Cordillera and Appalachian forests, long-term drought conditions were strong predictors of very large fire occurrence. Prior year anomalously wet conditions preceded very large fire occurrence in fuel-limited ecoregions, Semi-arid Prairies and Sierra Madre Piedmont of southern Arizona.
Climate and Fire Linkages
The authors found that in flammability-limited ecoregions, specifically the Western Cordillera and Appalachian forests, long-term drought conditions were strong predictors of very large fire occurrence. Prior year anomalously wet conditions preceded very large fire occurrence in fuel-limited ecoregions, Semi-arid Prairies and Sierra Madre Piedmont of southern Arizona.