Skip to main content

FRAMES logo
Resource Catalog

Document

Type: Journal Article
Author(s): Paul Fox-Hughes; C. Bridge; N. Faggian; C. Jolly; Stuart Matthews; E. Ebert; H. Jacobs; B. Brown; J. Bally
Publication Date: 2024

Background: Fire simulators are increasingly used to predict fire spread. Australian fire agencies have been concerned at not having an objective basis to choose simulators for this purpose.

Aims: We evaluated wildland fire simulators currently used in Australia: Australis, Phoenix, Prometheus and Spark. The evaluation results are outlined here, together with the evaluation framework.

Methods: Spatial metrics and visual aids were designed in consultation with simulator end-users to assess simulator performance. Simulations were compared against observations of fire progression data from 10 Australian historical fire case studies. For each case, baseline simulations were produced using as inputs fire ignition and fuel data together with gridded weather forecasts available at the time of the fire. Perturbed simulations supplemented baseline simulations to explore simulator sensitivity to input uncertainty.

Key results: Each simulator showed strengths and weaknesses. Some simulators displayed greater sensitivity to different parameters under certain conditions.

Conclusions: No simulator was clearly superior to others. The evaluation framework developed can facilitate future assessment of Australian fire simulators.

Implications: Collection of fire behaviour observations for routine simulator evaluation using this framework would benefit future simulator development.

Online Links
Citation: Fox-Hughes, Paul; Bridge, C.; Faggian, N.; Jolly, C.; Matthews, Stuart; Ebert, E.; Jacobs, H.; Brown, B.; Bally, J. 2024. An evaluation of wildland fire simulators used operationally in Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 33:WF23028.

Cataloging Information

Topics:
Regions:
Keywords:
  • Australia
  • evaluation framework
  • fire simulation modelling
  • fire simulator
  • fire spread
  • operational fire models
  • Prometheus classification system
  • Spark fire simulation tool
Record Last Modified:
Record Maintained By: FRAMES Staff (https://www.frames.gov/contact)
FRAMES Record Number: 69214